FAO, CCAFS and UNEP support the Government of Vietnam in developing regional socio-economic scenarios for Climate-Smart Agriculture

This activity is part of the FAO project “Climate-Smart Agriculture: capturing the synergies among mitigation, adaptation and food security” implemented within the Economics and Policy Innovations for Climate-Smart Agriculture (EPIC) Programme. The project, funded by the European Commission, was launched in January 2012 in Malawi, Vietnam and Zambia. It aims to support partner counties in their transition towards Climate-Smart Agriculture.

The meeting in Halong is the first of two workshops and will provide an innovative platform for policy makers, researchers and practitioners to develop possible scenarios on the linkages between food security and climate change not only for the country of Vietnam but also for the South-East Asian region, including Cambodia and Laos. Scenarios, as pointed out by CCAFS facilitators are fundamental to “provide the means to consider today’s policies, plans and decision-making processes in light of potential future developments”.

“The Government of Vietnam takes climate change and food security concerns very seriously. - says Jong-Ha Bae, FAO Representative in Vietnam - These regional scenarios will be crucial to increase our understanding of how agriculture will look like in the next years, under the effects of climate change. Scenarios are not simply mere tell-tale stories of future, but they will inform models that will generate quantitative knowledge and thoroughly evaluate the viability of various strategies. “This knowledge will form the basis for improved policies that will ensure food security, land use change, changes in emissions and carbon sequestration patterns, or in short, Climate-Smart Agriculture”. This activity is part of the FAO project “Climate-Smart Agriculture: capturing the synergies between mitigation, adaptation and food security” implemented within the Economics and Policy Innovations for Climate-Smart Agriculture (EPIC) Programme. The project, funded by the European Commission, was launched in January 2012 in Malawi, Viet Nam and Zambia. It aims to support partner counties in their transition towards Climate-Smart Agriculture. For further information on EPIC, visit: www.fao.org/climatechange/epic

Background Information
Expected outcomes of the workshop

• Scenarios developed for South East Asia up to 2050 with key regional stakeholders across sectors and disciplines as well as through models - capturing how key socio-economic and governance uncertainties affect food security, environments and livelihoods/wellbeing in the region – and how socio-economic drivers interact with climate change.
• Use of the scenarios to review and guide agricultural, food security, adaptation and/or mitigation policies, and investments, at the national and regional level (examples are FAO engagement in Northern Viet Nam, CCAFS planning in Cambodia).
• Use of the scenarios in research projects to test the feasibility of research recommendations including technologies and strategies under different socio-economic/governance futures.
• A network of regional stakeholders and partners who can use strategic planning tools such as scenarios and back-casting in their own organizations for adaptive governance toward improved food security, environments and livelihoods/wellbeing.
• The CCAFS South East Asia scenarios process functions as a regional case study to link to global efforts such as the IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathways.

Back-casting exercise
The findings and achievements of this meeting will provide the basis for a second workshop that will be held next year, in which a “back-casting exercise” will be conducted to help develop and evaluate policy plans and investment decisions. In particular, back-casting is a method of planning in which an event or situation is posited as having occurred in the future and it offers a way to get a group to envision a desirable future and then determine what must happen in order for that goal to be reached.

Background to the project
In 2010, the Agricultural Development Economics division (ESA) of the FAO initiated the programme Economics and Policy Innovations for Climate Smart Agriculture (EPIC) with the aim of developing tools, knowledge and partnerships to support countries in achieving climate smart agriculture. With funding from the European Commission, EPIC has partnered with Zambia, Malawi and Viet Nam, for a project that builds the necessary technical, policy and financing basis for achieving CSA in the respective countries.
The project has four main objectives:

1. Providing an evidence base for identifying, developing and implementing practices, policies and investments for climate smart agriculture.
2. Develop a country-owned strategic framework to guide action and investment on CSA.
3. Formulate climate smart agriculture investment proposals and identify possible financing sources;
4. Build capacity to plan, implement and finance climate smart agriculture on the basis of the results above.